In another, Barber warns of "the grim prospect of re-tribalisation of large swaths of humankind by war and bloodshed: a threatened balkanisation of nation-states in which culture is pitted against culture, people against people, tribe against tribe, a Jihad in the name of a hundred narrowly conceived faiths against every kind of interdependence, every kind of artificial social cooperation and mutuality'"
In the tragedy that is Somalia, Benjamin Barber's grim prophesy, almost word for word, would seem to have materialised. For after the forced departure of Dictator Siad Barre, the Somali nation regressed into feuding clans, each claiming an identity based on a "narrowly conceived faith". The capital Mogadishu itself was divided among several warlords, and it taxes one's mind trying to imagine how the citizens, in the course of their daily habits across different parts of town, negotiated through the various road blocks marking "clan sovereignty".
Then the Islamic Courts Union militia, probably with backing from international Islamic militant groups, took over most of the country. They quickly established Islamic law in the areas under their control. For instance, women, on pain of public thrashing, were required to dress in accordance with strict Islamic precepts. Reminiscent of the Taleban in Afghanistan, the ICU also banned cinema, and videos were burned in street bonfires. It speaks volumes of the level of despair in Somalia, that some citizens saw the Islamist's strict edicts as being preferable to the lawlessness and banditry their country had sunk to.
With the ICU firmly in control, the Transitional Government, formed in Kenya, and recently relocated to Baidoa in the North of Somalia, had to postpone its plans of moving to Mogadishu, as it did not have the military muscle to take on the Islamists. That is until Ethiopia, complaining of infringement on its sovereignty by ICU fighters, sent troops across the border and routed the Islamists from Mogadishu and other places. The defeated Islamists, threatening to use suicide warfare against the Transitional Government and its Ethiopian allies, attempted to flee across the border to Kenya. But the Kenyan authorities closed the border, and the U.S. bombed the fighters, claiming that they were Al-Queda. But just as they had warned, the Islamists have begun a bombing campaign a'la Baghdad against the Transitional Government and its Ethiopian allies.
So what is at stake in Somalia for each of the players?
Ethiopia and Kenya have significant ethnic Somali populations in the Ogaden region and Northern Frontier District respectively. Both countries have fought wars with Somalia over the latter's ambitions of creating a Greater Somalia. The two, therefore, see an Islamic government as more likely than not to revive ambitions of a Greater Somalia under Islamic auspices.
Also, the two countries have Muslim populations, Kenya especially. It is natural for them, therefore, to feel weary of the influence an Islamic state would have on their local Muslim populations.
This worry, especially for Kenya, is not without foundation, for the country has been the staging ground for militant Islamic activity. The deadly attacks on the U.S. embassy in Nairobi and the Israeli-owned hotel in Mombasa, are thought to have had the support of local radical Islamists.
For the U.S., the establishment of a radical Islamic state would be a drawback on its global fight against terrorism. A Taleban-style government in Somalia, they argue, would give sanctuary and all manner of support to Al-Queda and other Islamic militant groups.
The way to satisfy everyone's, especially the Somali people's, needs, is the establishment of an inclusive secular government. A fundamentalist government is, by its nature, exclusivist and adversarial.
Although some people saw the ICU's takeover as establishing order and stability, these can only be short term. Sooner or later, those who feel excluded will organise themselves and seek to forcefully change the status quo. A democratic government, guaranteeing equal rights to all, secular and religious, Islamic and non-Islamic, women and men, is the only way to guarantee long-term stability and, consequently, prosperity. It would also calm the suspicions of neighbouring countries and the West. The Transitional Government has its faults, understandable given the less than ideal circumstances in which it was formed. Yet its formation in exile followed liberal democratic principles. Delegates representing different interests cast their votes for candidates in an election that was seen by observers to be free and fair. The Transitional Government might not be excellent, but it offers an excellent framework within which all Somalis could participate in creating a constitutional order on which to build their future.
